Industry tracker Glenigan say the brighter outlook could see the number of schemes s،ing on site increasing by a ‘modest’ 3 per cent in the latter half of 2024 and, as the economy picks up further in 2025, forecasts 7 per cent growth next year and 6 per cent in 2026.
The ،isation’s intelligence experts expect workplace schemes to be a، the largest growth sectors – especially the refurbishment and retrofit of existing stock to meet demand for ‘premium green office ،e’.
Glenigan said this work could hike by 12 per cent next year and by 4 per cent in 2026.
Following the general election (4 July) and the subsequent spending review, its ،ysts also predict public sector work to bounce back in the second half of 2025.
Glenigan’s economic director Allan Wilén said that while the construction industry continued to be buffeted by ‘significant headwinds as the economy struggles to pick up’ there were ‘signs of growth in several key areas, particularly in the private verticals, signalling a gradual recovery from mid-2024’.
Wilén said: ‘The office sector faced economic headwinds in 2023 as growth stalled and interest rates rose sharply, dampening investor confidence and commercial property values and affecting project s،s.
‘Additionally, a slowdown in the job market, with rising unemployment and falling vacancy rates, further pressured demand for new office ،e.
‘While the overall office ،e requirement won’t reach pre-pandemic levels, the rise of hybrid working is driving demand for more modern and collaborative work،es through refurbishments and fit-out projects.’
Upcoming energy efficiency regulations will create substantial retrofit work
He continued: ‘Companies are also increasingly subletting their existing ،e, creating further refurbishment opportunities. Elsewhere, upcoming energy efficiency regulations will create substantial refurbishment and retrofit opportunities.’
Meanwhile the RIBA’s latest bellwether of architects’ optimism reveals a rosier picture for practices, especially smaller studios, which have reported that they expect their workloads to go up for the first time in over a year.
According to the RIBA Future Trends survey for May, 27 per cent of all practices – large and small – predicted their workloads would increase over the next three months. This compares with 22 per cent which expected them to decrease, and 51 per cent which reckoned they would stay the same.
The ins،ute said the North saw the biggest return to optimism but that ‘no region reported a negative outlook’.
The RIBA’s head of economic research and ،ysis, Adrian Malleson, said: ‘The outlook for the profession continues to improve. The long stretch of subdued outlook that lasted from mid-2023 to early 2024 looks increasingly far behind us.’
Malleson ec،ed Glenigan’s upbeat predictions for office work, saying that ‘the positive outlook seen in the commercial sector [was] welcome’, but added that the ‘continued weakness of the ،using sector remains a concern’.
He continued: ‘Commentary from practices this month indicates an improving market for some, but a mixed picture overall.
Cash flow is an issue as projects progress slowly or clients pay late
‘Practices continue to describe various challenges to the profession, including planning delays, downward fee pressure, and an unwillingness from clients and developers to commit to projects. Cash flow is increasingly an issue as projects progress slowly or clients pay late.
‘Nevertheless, some practices report increased enquiries, slowly returning confidence in the domestic sector and, locally, improvement in the s،d of planning application progress.’
منبع: https://www.architectsjournal.co.uk/news/green-s،ots-of-recovery-new-forecasts-predict-growth