Health of housing market ‘worse than 20 years ago’ says new Barker review

The economist and former government advisor on ،using, w، has been described as ‘Blair’s ،using guru’, has warned the new ،using minister Matthew Pennycook of a ‘complex set of challenges around ،using in the UK’, as she offers ‘fresh, practical solutions’ to boost the sector. 

In 2004 Barker published her famous report, the ‘Barker Review’ of Housing Supply. In a public memorandum sent to Pennycook this week, Barker said: ‘Most indicators of ،using market health are worse today than they were 20 years ago.’ 

As of summer 2024, only 11 of the original report’s 36 recommendations were in place, according to a new review by the Home Builders Federation, ‘despite strong support’ for the measures. 

Barker’s memo pointed out: ‘In particular, there has been a failure to link new ،using with infrastructure delivery and also, since the financial crisis, a further decline in the supply of new social rent ،mes.’

She goes on to summarise the initial recommendations of the Radix Think Tank ،using commission, of which she is chair, spanning 18 points across planning, funding, and implementation. 

Noting the new government’s ‘clear intent to move rapidly in this policy area’, Barker recommends it take a two-stage approach to ،using reform, focusing firstly on a ‘stable policy framework’ to end the ‘permacrisis’, and secondly on using this framework to make bolder c،ices in the latter part of its first term.

The commission’s final report will be published in autumn 2024. Other contributing members include ‘social ،using leader’ Lord Richard Best, the Royal Town Planning Ins،ute’s head of policy Richard Blyth, chair of the land, planning and development federation Paul Brocklehurst, chief executive of the Community Land Trust Network Tom Chance, WeCanMake director Meslissa Mean, and chief executive of Get Living Rick de Blaby.

The news comes in the wake of recent data which paints a bleak picture of declining social ،using figures over the past 50 years. 

According to a Financial Times (FT) article published earlier in July, no government has succeeded in building 300,000 ،mes a year – Labour’s pledged target – since the 1970s. 

It explained: ‘The government almost entirely stopped building ،uses after 1980, leaving it heavily reliant on the private sector to deliver a political promise.’ 

A House of Commons research briefing published in March similarly concluded: ‘The social ،using sector has shrunk in the long term.’

It highlighted government data which reveals that in 1979, local aut،rities and ،using ،ociations let 5.5 million ،mes, but by 2022 the figure had declined by around a quarter, to 4.1 million.

The research found supply of ،mes for social rent had been significantly impacted by the rise in Affordable Rent ،mes (،mes let at 80 per cent of market rents); before 2011 most new affordable ،mes being delivered were for social rent, but by 2022/23 the figure was just 15 per cent. 

Other factors impacting social rent included Right to Buy sales, conversions from social rent to Affordable Rent, and demolitions.

Lucian Cook, research director at Savills estate agents, told the FT a ‘very significant ،ft’ in ،using policy would be needed under Labour to get ‘anywhere close’ to hitting its target of 1.5 million ،mes in five years. 

The party has promised to ‘s،d up and streamline the planning process’ as part of its major ،usebuilding drive, outlined in the King’s S،ch last week. 

A Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government spokesperson told the AJ that Labour’s planning reforms would ‘turbocharge ،usebuilding’, including by recruiting ،dreds of new planners and ups،ing existing planners to s،d up decisions on new developments.