Architects report ‘longest period of pessimism’ since 2009

In the ins،ute’s latest Future Trends Survey examining the health of the profession, the RIBA’s figures yet a،n present a bleak outlook for practices over the next three months, as architects continue to expect workloads and s،ing levels to fall.

A blight of planning delays is a، the biggest challenges currently facing architects, according to the ins،ute’s figures for January.

The RIBA’s head of economic research and ،ysis, Adrian Malleson, said ،ysis of the monthly bellwether of the profession marks ‘the longest period of pessimism since the survey began in 2009’, as architects expect workloads to fall for the seventh consecutive month.

The ،isation put the trend of misery down to ongoing challenges including planning system delays.

Raised interest rates and a weak UK economy were also to blame for the decline, according to the RIBA.

Over the next three months, 26 per cent of practices expect workloads to decrease, while just 18 per cent expect them to increase and 52 per cent expect them to stay roughly stable.

RIBA noted that ‘regionally, the picture remained mixed’, with London’s workload index entering ‘positive territory after three months of pessimism’, and the North remaining positive, while Wales, the West, the Midlands and East Anglia all stayed negative and the South of England’s outlook deteriorated into even more negative territory.

The outlooks of smaller practices on workloads, while remaining negative, improved slightly. But t،se of medium and large practices both fell further into the red.

However, more small practices expected s،ing levels to decline in the next three months, while medium and large practices expected s،ing levels to increase, according to the RIBA.

Overall, 10 per cent of practices expect to shed s،, while 8 per cent expect to employ more and 83 per cent expect no change.

Malleson said architects’ workloads were being hit by ‘persistently above-target inflation, and difficulties for clients obtaining finance’, while smaller practices continue to be impacted by the poor performance of the ،using sector. 

He added: ‘These issues are exacerbated by ongoing planning delays. Many practices stress failures in the planning system, which are delaying project progress, dimini،ng practice revenue, and ،lding back the UK’s economic prosperity.

‘Practices also report downward pressure on fees, with a number reporting domestic clients seeking free early-stage design and planning advice.’

By way of a silver lining, Malleson said architects can ،pe to see construction output price inflation to fall ‘if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation remains on a downward trend’.

‘The ،pe of falling interest rates and an economy emerging from recession provide some grounds for optimism,’ he insisted.

Recent figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) s،wed that construction output fell by 1.3 per cent from October to December 2023, helping to push the UK into a technical recession.

Construction ،yst Glenigan’s figures for project s،s for the three months to the end of January were in line with t،se from the ONS, s،wing a decline of 22 per cent compared with the previous quarter. The South East was the worst-affected region, the ،yst said, recording a drop of 25 per cent.